Fantasy Draft Strategy

There are many draft strategies. The ever so simple RB-RB, the new age WR-WR. Just two rounds though, and value is still a concern. My strategy can be covered in a simple Green day quote "Do you know the enemy?" If yes, you probably have drafted with them before, know their tendencies, who they overvalue, who they undervalue. The key is figuring out when you can get value that matters to your roster. Picking 5 RB's in 5 rounds is dumb even if they are the best available each round. While picking a QB, 2 RBs, and 2 Rs in the first 5 rounds is dumb if you didn't get adequate value for your picks. Thus why VBD (Value-Based-Drafting) is such a hit. But you always have to make adjustments. You could attempt to get Tebow thinking he is a diamond in the rough with your last pick, not picking a backup QB until then, but he gets picked right before you get the chance to. What do you do? That is why your draft cannot be done by you before the draft. Adejustments always have to be made forthat one lunatic in your league who takes the guy you are gunning for 5 rounds before he has any value what-so-ever. Come into a draft knowing who you can get safely, who isn't worth the time of day, who your targets are, and who your sleepers are. But always be prepared for the unexpected.

Quarterbacks

One big team this offseason with QB's has been the Browns. That is mainly from the Derek Anderson and Jake Delhomme release and signing. They seem to have their situation settled for now. But, two big possibilities now are the obvious draft, and then, Charlie Whitehurst. Whitehurst is an extremely accurate QB, with a very tight spiral. One thing though, is he is easily hurried. If he gets to a team with a strong O-Line that can keep him safe, he will be a star. The pressure is basically his only weakness. Now back to the draft, Sam Bradford will either go #1 or #4, the higher he goes, the higher Clausen goes. Bradford hits with the Rams, watch the Skins take Clausen at 4. But if Bradford drops, Clausen could go down all the way to #14. Then we have Tebow. Watch for the Patriots to look his way for a solid back-up to Brady in the 2nd round, considering they have 4 picks in the first two rounds, 3 of which are 2nd rounders.

The Pro Bowl

Let's get this out of the way ASAP. If the NFL ever does it this way again, they are idiots. And the reason for that is because the new biggest story isn't even on the field or who will be the kicker and punter for the AFC. It will be who is standing on the sidelines. Mainly wether we will see Dwight Freeney. Due to the Pro Bowl, if you did not know, being before the Super Bowl, players playing in the Super Bowl will not be present on the Pro Bowl field in full pads. Now the problem is wether they will show up or not as the NFL wants them to make an appearance. I am thinking we will not see Reggie Wayne or Dwight Freeney there. Just a guess of mine.

Early Bird Gets The Worm!

And for that reason, here are my early fantasy picks.

Top 5 QB's:

1. Aaron Rodgers - Best fantasy QB last year, and #2 the year before, big names don't always hold their own.
2. Drew Brees - Plain and simply the 2nd best QB in the NFL, Manning is amazing, but has gotten worse with age and won't take the top 2 again for his career.
3. Peyton Manning - aged and decreasing in ability, top 5 QB's of all-time, but he is getting worse, and when you getting worse is still the third best player of the decade at something, that is amazing.
4. Brett Favre - If he comes back, great sleeper, pick him up. Look at what he did this season with those receivers. Percy and Sidney will both get plenty better for next season, giving them way better odds.
5. Matt Schaub - Purely based on what he did last season.

Top 5 RB's:

1. Adrian Peterson - no matter what goes down, He is still elite
2. Chris Johnson - Did you watch one Titans play at all last season??
3. MJD - Again, same as Chris Johnson, different team.
4. Ray Rice - Next elite back, could be top 3 easily by game time week 1. Watch out for this guy, he reminds me a lot of LT (before the last 2 seasons :P)
5. Steven Jackson - #2 in yards last season, and with the Rams getting Suh, he could get the Rams a lot more T.O.P., maybe not better, but without a passing game, Jackson will get plenty of touches, and that really matters in this game.

Top 5 WR's:

1. Andre Johnson - With Schaub on the rise, and the Texans overall on the rise, looks really good for Andre, only thing to worry about here, Fitz and then Owen Daniels, as he might take away some chances.
2. Larry Fitzgerald - Fitz isn't looking as good as he used to, and he is still amazing. But with Anquan on the way up, he will take away some receptions away, plus Beanie getting star power, looks bad for Fitz. Check out Kurt Warner to, or maybe next season, Leinart :(
3. DeSean Jackson - Uprising star, next best WR in the NFL.
4. Miles Austin - Uprising star, and next season, watch out for him and the 'Boys to go far.
5. Vincent Jackson - Did consistent last year, and if the Chargers work the vertical passing game even more, amazing stats for him, unless you are in a PPR, he's a perfect choice.

I know, I know.......

it's the conference championships so that is what most people are talking about, but you know something, I am very impressed with three guys in this draft so much they're more important. Let's get this out of the way: My top 3 players; Derrick Morgan (DE), Gerald McCoy (DT), and Sam Bradford (QB). My 2 overrated (top 10 pick) players; Eric Berry (S) and Carlos Dunlap (DE). Overrated also is Tim Tebow, and in an honorable mention for a great player is Russell Okung.

Now for my analysis. Derrick Morgan gets off the edge strong on the pass rush and gets around the OT quickly and effortlessly getting to the QB. Gerald McCoy is a solid DT clogging the middle and shutting players down up the middle, for short, if any, gains. He is a spectacular run stopper with pass-rushing that alone could make him a first-rounder. Ahhhhh................... Sam Bradford. People may dislike his less than perfect arm strength for the NFL, but he is deadly accurate with the ball, hitting receivers I have seen Eli Manning, Rivers, and other top QB's miss completely out of reach for the WR. This guy is my favorite player in this year's draft and might just make me a 'Skins fan! I can't emphasize his accuracy enough, and mark my words, he will be a household name very soon. Now we have Okung, amazing OT. I am not one to usually love o-line, why he is not in my top 3 players. But if anyone wants a player they can rely on to be a top player at his position, this is it. I'd say top 5 at his position for the duration of his career.

Now for my cruel time, where I make enemies, I like enemies. First off, we got Eric Berry. Good safety, good, not great, not where teams rank him. He makes big plays, but one part of being an elite defensive player, is stopping elite offensive players. He has horrible wrap-up abilities which good offensive players can beat easily. Now for Carlos Dunlap, he is a good player but one primary skill of his, batting down balls, won't be good enough to get him a starting spot consistently in the NFL. Also, Tim Tebow is another overrated player. He is a strong player in many areas, but is weak in too many areas that he will not last against NFL game-planning.

The First...

Alright guys, hey. I'm MK from San Diego. I'm not one to feed around the bush, so I'll get straight to the point. I love sports, mainly football and lacrosse, and I know what I am doing when it comes to the two. So I have been pretty bored lately, and was thinking, why not throw out my two cents, so if you want my two cents, I'll be here. I will talk about anything sports related (preferably football or lax, but I will go elsewhere if you guys want), just post a topic, and I'll make sure I get to it.

So my first real subject; Divisional Round.

I'm writing this at 9:30 PST, so some games are over.

1st game: Cards @ Saints, 1 v 4, NFC

this one went pretty fast. Reminded me of college, high-scoring, small plays, and then a few big. Hightower was 3 carries, 77 yds, and 1 TD at the end of the first half. One of those for 70. That might have been nice, but Brees and the Saints were unstoppable. Saints are on a roll, and back to the word unstoppable. Unstoppable, no one can stop them on their quest for a super bowl, except someone with only 2 more chances at it, including this season. Favre. If the Vikes play the Saints, that is the only chance of stopping them, if they don't, no one will, and Saints will be champs.

2nd game: Ravens @ Colts, 2 v 6, AFC

This game was born and died at the hand of turnovers. Ravens had 9 turnovers all season, and went +10. Today they had 4 turnovers and went -3. Not to mention Rice's less than poor performance. Ravens very well could have won this one, but they had a horrible, might I say pathetic, game.

3rd game: Jets @ Boltz

As being from San Diego I am supposed to expect the Boltz to win 56-3 (the 3 out of some respect for the opponent). But I don't see this one going that way. I know they say if you establish the run, you can establish the pass. Not going to work like that against Kerry Rhodes, and oh wait, the best cornerback in the league, Darrelle Revis. A less than perfect Chargers passing game will be shut down not being able to hit Vincent Jackson. Rushing can't win it all, so expect between 10-21 points from the Boltz, which being these last two weeks, is very low scoring. The Jets, especially Mark Sanchez, will be out and ready to wreak havoc like the Cards last season, the team that no one thought deserved a spot, pulls it out. Sanchez wants to prove people wrong, and he is right. Watch this Jets team pummel the Chargers in humiliating fashion.

Alright, was going to do the Boys @ Vikes game, but have to go. All I have to say about that, Favre wants it badly, and as the past offseason showed us if he wants something, wether it be a ring, or to play for the Vikes, he gets it.

Peace Out

~MK